从18年入圈,我观察crypto的需求群体大概就有三类人: 1 一无所有赌狗, 2 有大格局的信仰者, 3 套利和刷空投的薅羊毛理财群体, 现在看,如果你是狗庄,怎么赚钱? 一无所有的赌狗已经被爆仓, 大格局钻石手早已在2021年随着ftx和luna离场, 就剩下这轮唯一的稳赢群体 - 理财人有钱赚了。 加密货币迟迟不能找到稳定的外部性,只能用“流动性”这种所有资产都会涨的论点支撑上涨信仰,但是现在比特币的4年周期接近尾声,山寨币的供给侧又没有丝毫改观 —造币越来越简单(pump等),卖币越来越难(没有新买盘)。 从mmt这种极端的爆仓事件可以清晰的看出理财群体也不好过了。而且最大的问题是理财群体必须不能好过,如果大家都理财不买币,那就只会让加密货币市场的市值和流动性越来越差,形成负向飞轮。 不能继续在加密货币理财/套利了,不管是为了赚容易的钱,还是为了支持自己的事业(加密货币)。
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