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Is this the bull tail?! I haven't even gotten on the train yet 😂
Since being ruthlessly taken down by my shameless family back in May, I haven't been able to regain my trading status, and my position has remained weak at 1/3.
At the beginning of July, while adjusting my positions for the upcoming altcoin season, I didn't stick to the barbell strategy by allocating to JLP, nor did I buy back the Fat Penguin NFT that I sold at a high for profit; I only focused on the technical narrative by allocating to the AI x Crypto sector with $C and $REI, the ZK sector with $LA, and the NFT sector with Degods. Among these, only Degods is in a profitable state.
Fortunately, $SOON had a surge in August, saving my investment portfolio's yield curve during the altcoin season from July to August.
Although I don't quite agree with the "bull tail theory," I believe the altcoin season is likely to come to a sudden stop in September, but it will be a healthy adjustment. Right now, there aren't any risk points like the previous cycle's Luna or FTX that could trigger a chain reaction.
If there is indeed a sharp drop in September, it would precisely provide me, as a sidelined retail investor, with an annual-level opportunity to allocate to altcoins, and this time I will definitely adopt a barbell strategy of Beta (JLP) + Alpha (emerging AI x Crypto projects) to capture the upward opportunities in the autumn market.
Moreover, I will learn from the previous experience of "narrative is king" subjective trading and introduce a self-built and continuously iterated Multi-Agent market analysis system as an aid for selecting investment targets.

TraderS | 缺德道人
From the perspective of the big cycle, the bull market is definitely not over, and Biden Sr. has a good saying: "You can't just say it's a bull market when Bitcoin rises"
Bitcoin and the US dollar index often show a negative correlation: the US dollar is strong, Bitcoin is weak; The dollar is weak, Bitcoin is strong.
2017 bull market: The US dollar index fell from 103 to below 90, and Bitcoin rose from $1,000 to nearly $20,000 in the same period.
2020–2021 bull market: The US dollar index fell from 103 to 90 after the pandemic, and Bitcoin rose from more than 10,000 to 69,000.
2022 bear market: The Fed raised interest rates aggressively, the US dollar index hit a 20-year high (114), and Bitcoin fell below $20,000.
Strong dollar cycle (Fed interest rate hikes, global capital flows back to the US): Emerging market capital outflows, risk assets under pressure, and Bitcoin tends to weaken.
Weak dollar cycle (Fed rate cuts, dollar depreciation): Global funds look for income opportunities, liquidity is flooded, and Bitcoin, gold and US stocks tend to strengthen at the same time.
At present, the Federal Reserve is in the process of shifting from tightening to easing, and the US dollar index is at a relatively high level but has entered a volatile downward range, which is good for Bitcoin in the medium and long term.


It used to be said that "going to Binance is a ladder": Alpha → contracts → spot.
However, the actual delivery is not the end, because spot assets also have collateral coefficients.
Just like the "big realm" in the novel, each "big realm" is divided into several "small realms".
Today I just talked to my friends about LTV, and I will share it with you by the way.
In the Binance system, the highest collateral ratio is the S tier (95%–100%), and all the assets in it can be used as real money.
Among them, USDT/USDC is among the top tiers: the collateral ratio on Binance is 99.99%, and the maximum leverage allowed is 10x; While BFUSD is slightly lower at 99.90%, allowing 5x – that's the difference between "four nines" and "three nines."
95% have only three major coins: BTC / ETH / BNB (of which BNB can be regarded as "self-made admission").
95% means that $1 of BTC can be opened and leveraged at a value of $0.95.
The second tier A (65%–90%) is basically top altcoins, such as SOL, DOGE, etc.
The reason why it is said to be a "ladder" is because there are also promotion channels - such as ENA, TON, and A (formerly EOS), which have just been promoted this time.
In particular, A has been directly increased from 35% to 65%, spanning two small realms, which is a high-spec leap promotion. If you want to rank among the A-tier altcoins, liquidity, reputation, and chip structure are indispensable.
Next is B-gear (35%-60%), which are also relatively hard copycats, leaders of various small tracks, or strong sub-new copycats. For example, TRUMP and Worldcoin are only 50%.
You know, if the collateral ratio is raised too high, theoretically the project can mortgage a bunch of chips to Binance to cash out, which is no joke.
Many copycats are stuck in this gear for the rest of their lives, and some even fall back to this gear if they perform poorly.
Then there is the C file (10%–35%), which is generally particularly new, either very strong or "hard", as well as old copycats (which have been laid flat); Perhaps in the eyes of Binance's liquidity department, they are "not fully tested by the market" or identified as "pure pension".
Many new coins have been listed recently, such as Huma, LA, SAHARA, SPOK, etc. Veteran lying flat like YFI and ZRX.
But C gear is also good, because there is also D gear.
Finally, there are some altcoins that are really not very good, which have no collateral qualifications and cannot be used as collateral, that is, Gear D (I will not name them here).
Of course, even the D tier is already the winner of the "Binance ladder" - the spot end 😂 that many contract projects and even alpha projects dream of.
No wonder people have been saying lately: "It's finally been discovered that it may be easier to get on Nasdaq than on Binance." ”
This "ladder road" is too real.




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