The cycle & trend thinking rules in crypto – Part 3 Understanding the cycle is the foundation for survival. Each crypto cycle has 4 phases: accumulation → explosion → distribution → recession. Most people lose because they buy during the euphoria phase and sell during the fear phase. Knowing the cycle = knowing when to "go hunting" and when to "sit still". Follow the money, not the crowd. Money always moves ahead of the news. When retail starts to FOMO → big money has gradually withdrawn. Monitor stablecoin flows, on-chain flow, and smart money wallets instead of rumors. Trend is king – choose the right narrative to win easily. Each cycle has a few strong trends: DeFi (2020), NFT (2021), AI & Meme (2023–2024)… You don’t need to catch every trend, just choose 1–2 that you understand and follow closely. Don’t go against the trend, because "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." Know when the trend ends. When everyone is talking about that trend → it’s about to end. Volume decreases, the trending token gradually declines with each retracement → a signal of money withdrawal. At this point, you should rotate your capital to a new emerging chain or narrative. Think like an "investigator" – not a "gambler". Find out why money is flowing to which narrative (AI, L2, SocialFi, DePin…). Observe large wallets, dev teams, funds → what are they accumulating, where are they farming. The more you understand the reasons, the less you get FOMO, and the easier it is to make accurate decisions. Don’t try to catch the top or bottom – catch the "clear trend" instead. Buying in the middle of a trend still yields more than trying to guess the bottom. Tops and bottoms are only clear after they have passed; no one knows exactly when they are there. It’s better to enter late but in the right trend than to enter quickly but incorrectly.