Monad price

[monad airdrop estimates] i didn’t really want to speak on this topic, since my views might come across as going against popular opinion. but a lot of people asked me to cover it, so let’s go. first, let’s start with the target @monad fdv in my head, based on current pre-markets, listings, and other factors. before pre-markets and other projects that i think deserve much lower valuations came along, my target was around 6b. now i see an fdv of 9-12b. let’s take the middle ground: 10b fdv and a token price of $0.10. in my view, i don’t see the tge airdrop exceeding 7%. there might be more allocated for airdrops, but we could see a seasonal approach like optimism, arbitrum, etc. - 2% - roles and social activity - 2% - testnet - 1% - other community partners - 1% - monad cards - 0.2-0.5% - validators at current prices, that’s around $700 million. i intentionally didn’t include things like monad momentum or other rewards/grants here, since i don’t expect them in this "season," at least. roles and social activity (2%) /// since i can’t share exact role numbers to avoid leaking non-public info, i’ll just share my estimates. i believe each role will have a base allocation, and your final allocation will be the sum of all the roles you hold. main roles: mon2 - 2,000,000 mon mon - 1,000,000 mon nad-og - 500,000 mon nads - 250,000 mon localnads - 200,000 mon tg - 100,000 mon total: ~0.7% for all main roles. additional roles: monactivist - not sure about allocation, as several people told me this role was "removed" running hot - 300,000 mon quant - 200,000 mon monartist - 200,000 mon monvideo - 200,000 mon 1)what - 50,000 mon pioneer - 50,000 mon total: ~0.15% for all additional roles. we have a ton of other roles that could still matter (devnads is a good example), but they seem less significant to me than the ones above. let’s take this roles for the remaining 0.15%, bringing the total for all roles to 1%. i also didn’t include full access, not because i think people with this role don’t deserve anything, but because it’s very hard to distribute fairly. everyone who joined early - got this role, so there are now many people with it. i’m sure there are farms with 200-500-1000 full access accounts, and if they aren’t filtered out, a lot of tokens will go to fraud people. social activity: recognizer + data monad collects about our accounts. 7,000 people in the recognizer. i’ll assume around 2,000 get filtered out (likely more, but let’s take a non-optimistic case) as clear bot accounts unrelated to monad. that leaves 5,000 people who’ll get something (finally monad cards❔). it would make sense to split them into tiers via the recognizer. let’s say 5 tiers: tier s - 100 people - 700,000 mon tier a - 300 people - 400,000 mon tier b - 600 people - 150,000 mon tier c - 1,000 people - 75,000 mon tier d - 2,000 people - 50,000 mon total: ~1.5% for roles + recognizer. the remaining 0.5% could go to people who posted about monad but didn’t register in the recognizer (early supporters, kols, etc.) and to other social platforms like farcaster. testnet (2%) /// who might qualify: - 1 million nads sbt - 628,000 people - monad games sbt - 34,000 people - value holders - people with a certain amount of mon across platforms (including in nfts) - contract deployers - fee spenders - nft minters - consistent users - protocol interactions - etc. many people compare this testnet airdrop to arbitrum/hyperliquid and claim the monad testnet airdrop will be 10%, 20%, or even 100% of the supply (lol). but they completely miss that arbitrum’s airdrop wasn’t for the testnet - it was for people who spent real money on fees in the actual l2. same with hyperliquid. i also don’t think all sbt holders will get the airdrop - there are too many sybils here. it was possible to farm 100-200-1000-10,000 accounts in 24 hours, so there will clearly be a cleanup. other partners communities (1%) /// at least three projects have given airdrops to nads, so they might get something in return. there are also nft projects that received purple passes. and friend-projects. monad cards (1%) /// how to make everyone in crypto twitter bullish on monad❔ give away money that was earned in two clicks. 9,000 cards - 100,000 mon if we don’t split into tiers. but based on hints from tunez and other team members, there are clearly tiers, and top kols might get a lot. validators (0.2-0.5%) /// almost 100% sure there will be an airdrop for validators, but i expect it to be vested or even locked. there are around 200 teams validating monad part run nodes on testnet-1, part on testnet-2, part on both. so obviously, teams in both testnets will get more. what do you think❔ are my expectations too low❔ how many tokens would you get based on my estimates❔

My thoughts on the Monad token market on @Polymarket On October 8th, @monad posted that the claim was “coming soon” That same day, the odds shot up to 62%, but with no follow-up news, we dropped back down to 17% There’s still plenty of time left in the month and plenty of posts from them coming too I’ll be trading around those posts Because any decent announcement could easily pump us 30–40% (my guess), which is already a solid x2–3 profit opportunity Whether you follow or not is up to you, I’m just sharing what I’m doing