'- reads robin hanson's prediction market research'
wow man, i gotta say, @robinhanson 's footprint runs deep
wonder what else is cooking in hanson world
> be shayne
> born 1998, upper west side of NYC
> 2014
> at 16 y.o gets into ethereum presale
> "youngest participant ever"
> get $eth per 30 cents
> fast forward
> student of NYU computer science
> university can't contain the vision
> drops out
> parents are not happy
> 2.5 years later
> still nothing to show
> almost burned out
> literally selling belongings to pay rent
> friends think he's done
> 2020
> pandemic hits, world goes insane
> misinformation everywhere
> traditional media lying
> polls completely wrong
> who/what to trust?
> shayne sees the signal through the noise
> reads robin hanson's prediction market research
> lightbulb moment
> "what if money + opinions = truth?"
> lockdown begins
> perfect timing
> launches polymarket from bathroom office
> locked in
> solo founder grinding 18 hour days
> friends still don't get it
> "it's just gambling dude"
> but shayne saw different
> while others chased memecoins, he built the future of information
> truth became tradeable
> $4m seed round drops
> polychain, naval ravikant believe
> still working from bathroom
> "founder" arc begins
> 2020 election
> polymarket calls it perfectly
> $1.3m volume in one day
> mainstream media takes notice
> shayne's vision getting materialized
> success brings enemies
> 2022, СFTC comes
> $1.4m fine
> forced to ban US users
> haters thought it was over
> shayne don't stop building
> goes international
> platform explodes globally
> $3.2 billion election volume 2024
> accurately predicts trump victory
> "polymarket single-handedly called the election"
> november 2024
> FBI raids apartment at 6 am
> seizes phone, laptop
> deep state not happy about being exposed
> shayne tweets: "new phone, who dis?"
> plot twist
> july 2025
> investigations dropped
> september 2025
> cftc approval
> polymarket returns to america
> polymarket is on South Park
> Shayne literally starts prediction markets meta
> october 2025
> date Cara Zimmerman
> Shayne spoke at SEC & CFTC joint roundtable
> NYSE makes strategic investment into polymarket
> $2 billion raised
> $9 billion valuation
> 27 years old
> youngest self-made billionaire in history
> TIME puts on the 2025 TIME100 Next list.
prediction markets legend - @shayne_coplan
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