Summary from October 11 to October 18, 2025, and thoughts on the future 1. Macroeconomic Environment Yesterday, I reviewed several tweets from macro analysts (real analysts) and summarized them: 1. The TGA account balance is currently high, meaning that due to the government shutdown, the government’s funds have not been released; 2. The so-called bank failures are not very risky, far lower than previous instances; 3. There is also a game of strategy between China and the U.S.; 4. In summary, the possibility of TACO is very high, and the key nodes to wait for are ① government reopening, ② China-U.S. meeting; 5. We are currently at a transition point from a tightening cycle to a loosening cycle (interest rate cuts, balance sheet expansion). 2. Technical Analysis 1. Looking solely at Bitcoin and Ethereum, there are not many issues; the trend is in line with expectations. Since early August, when the weekly MACD had a death cross, I mentioned that according to the pattern, when the weekly MACD has a death cross, even in a bull market (large upward trend), we must wait for a pullback to the zero line; 2. This type of weekly adjustment can either take time or space. Even with the major cleanup on October 11, the drop from the highest point of the big pie is only 20%, far from the previous deep adjustment of 30% (adjustment from March to August 2024 --- adjustment from February to April 2025); 3. The key point of this emotional blow is that altcoins have been maliciously drained of liquidity, resulting in 50%-100% spike behaviors (as shown by the fourth largest market cap, $XRP). 3. Summary 1. Since most altcoins did not experience an upward trend with this new high of the big pie, it can be reasonably determined that this adjustment is similar to the adjustment pattern from March to August 2024, which is horizontal and long, but the depth of the adjustment may not be too deep (referring to the big pie), possibly a complex horizontal joint adjustment wave; 2. The fundamental reason is still the lack of liquidity in the market; the government’s funds have not been released, and the Federal Reserve’s funds are also not in place. The only liquidity available has been seized by BSC, so other altcoins can only continue to lie low; 3. Why BSC? The native power in the crypto circle is the strongest; other forces cannot compete with BN. With the government shutdown, the narratives from Wall Street regarding ETFs are also stalled. During this window period, BSC can make a move, and if it can succeed, it’s not hard to understand; 4. I remain optimistic about the future market (the timeline is six months, meaning within six months, there will be another wave of general profit-making, similar to the main upward wave starting in October 2024, where small-cap altcoins could rise several times), but the process in between may be quite frustrating (for example, this wave up looks very much like a main upward wave, then comes down again, or it may go straight up; we need to take it step by step); 5. It’s hard for the big pie to drop deeply. Since 2023, the price of my systematic indicators' bull-bear boundary has reached between 95,000 and 100,000. As long as it does not break this range (spikes do not count; we need to look at the same level's actual closing K), we assume the overall trend is not finished. If it breaks, the overall logic will change; 6. Subjective speculation: Why did Wall Street pull $BTC from 15,000 to over 100,000 during the tightening cycle? The only explanation I can think of is that they want to pull the big pie to 200,000 during the loosening cycle (focusing on momentum rather than price).